2-4 October 2024

The Edge Convention Centre
Nairobi, Kenya
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Kenya in 2040- Mapping Kenya s future basing on four scenarios.

Kenya in 2040- Mapping Kenya s future basing on four scenarios. An Eastern sunset, Managed Stagnation, Madaraka realized and Jua Kali kingdom.
Which s the best scenario for Kenya in 2040 based on the now?
The hashtag#InstituteofEconomicAffairs in partnership with hashtag#OxfordEconomicsAfrica have analyzed and modeled the four scenarios which can shape Kenya s economy in 2040. The four scenarios include:
1. An Eastern Sunset- the state is ineffective and policy environment is not conducive to development of a vibrant private sector.
2. Managed Stagnation- state capacity improves but policy direction is not supportive of a well developed private sector leading to failure in Industrialisation of the economy
3. Madaraka realized- the state capacity has improved and there is greater economic freedom with a private sector led economic growth model.
4. Jua Kali Kingdom- in this scenario there are favorable policy reforms but the state is ineffective and institutions are weak preventing the implementation of the favorable reforms. Private sector takes it upon themselves to further the country s development.

Fast forward to 2040 which scenario do I see Kenya in?
Realistically and practically I would predict a 60% Madaraka realized with a 40% Jua Kali Kingdom. Here is why…..

Undeniably the Kenyan Government has a vision of becoming an independent African nation and has set out robust reforms in particular areas/sectors to achieve this. To mention but a few.. IT and innovation, financial services, infrastructure development, managing public debt, privatization. Some of these are already starting to bear fruits i.e. technology advancement and infrastructure development. Furthermore the Government s Bottom up economic transformation agenda (BETA) pillars look towards an independent state in the long term. We cannot ignore the BETA and its implementation since 2040 is just sixteen years away and Kenya has a new dispensation.
The Government is however still and may still be grappling with matters of fighting corruption, judicial independence and efficacy and therefore implementation of the otherwise good policy reforms becomes unachievable.

On the other hand we need to remind ourselves that 80% of Kenya s workforce is in the informal sector and has been so for a longest time. This then means that Jua Kali kingdom will remain predominant in the wake of weak state institutions and judicial independence and efficacy. Such informal work force may decide to take it upon themselves to further the country s development in the world of “survival for the fittest”.

Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7148308334184488960/

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